Over the weekend, Greek leaders struggled to agree to a set of radical budget cuts as the country approaches an October deadline to qualify for $11 billion in aid without which it will certainly default on its growing debt.

As the bailout of Greece spirals into a costly mess, officials have raised the idea of an "orderly default." Germany's economy minister Philipp Roesler publicly introduced the concept and, needless to say, the mere mention of bankruptcy was anything but calming for global investors.

Come on guys, that's an easy way to take Max money (he says Greece will not default).

WilyB wrote:

Come on guys, that's an easy way to take Max money (he says Greece will not default).

I have a 1,000 saying the ooozzo swillers take it up the ass in less than a month.

I go all in saying the Greeks will NOT default.

How about the French give Greece their Libyan oil contracts. You know, the ones they bombed Libya for.

Wily wrote:

Greece will default within 4 weeks.

It would have been nice to still have Senna to kick around on this issue.


Alas, Poup and his circle jerk posse chased him away.

I hope they default lol. Then Italy

almost a month and nothing. Thegeneral public of various nations with fund Greece. You watch

Sad but true

Isn't it time to pay the winners ?

run it again WilyB - double or nothing

Dewi_Sant wrote:

run it again WilyB - double or nothing

Have the CDS been activated ?

No !!!

Then the winning proposition is definitely "CON".
Pay up and shut the fuck up !

I'd like to resolve it but I get nowhere when I click on "resolve"

www.fuckfrance.com . . .

I like Greece. My sort of people have a long history there. And they are right. Women are for reproduction, but men, oh men are the beautiful ones who are for love.

Want to meet up Nikos?

As far as I'm concerned Greece defaulted and the consequences were put off by central bank money printing.

Willy should be paid as well as me,

NOZZLE wrote:

As far as I'm concerned Greece defaulted and the consequences were put off by central bank money printing.

Sorry, NOZZLE, but wrong on both counts:

1- Greece obviously hasn't defaulted. Default = no money to service debt interest or payrolls. Hasn't happened.

2- Greece can't print money anymore. The ECB could, but has not.



Anyway, the bet was not about HOW the default would be averted,

but IF the default has been averted. And it has been averted.



Bottom line: I could not care less about Greece, but I want my bet karma

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Yep, Time to Pay UP

pottytrainer wrote:

Yep, Time to Pay UP

Sorry guys this is not something you are used to like betting on a basketball game,

Willy defined the timing of the default based on Greece having to roll its debt during October. Greece obviously did not pay and could not make a bond offering to obtain cash to cover its required payments; the association that declares whether a default occurred triggering a CDS event has put off making its declaration.

Just because the bondholders agreed to not enforce the terms of their agreement does not mean that a default did not occur.

Try reading this, I think you and JeanV can muddle thru it

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said that the euro-area proposals for Greek bonds appear to involve “a voluntary exchange that would not be binding on all holders,” according to an e-mailed statement.

“As such, it does not appear to be likely that the euro zone proposal will trigger payments under existing CDS contracts,” the statement said. “However, whether or not it does so will be decided by the Determinations Committee on the basis of specific facts, if a request is made to them.”

www.bloomberg.com . . .

The world economy may soon find itself in the hands of a small group of bankers who must make a seemingly technical decision that has huge ramifications.

As European government leaders reached a deal early Thursday on a plan for containing the debt crisis in Greece and other nations, they looked for the owners of Greek bonds to take a significant reduction in what they are owed — as much as 50 percent. That prompts a key question: Will that officially count as a “default” for purposes of the massive market that allows investors to insure against those losses?

The world economy may soon find itself in the hands of a small group of bankers who must make a seemingly technical decision that has huge ramifications.

As European government leaders reached a deal early Thursday on a plan for containing the debt crisis in Greece and other nations, they looked for the owners of Greek bonds to take a significant reduction in what they are owed — as much as 50 percent. That prompts a key question: Will that officially count as a “default” for purposes of the massive market that allows investors to insure against those losses?

www.washingtonpost.com . . .

NOZZLE wrote:

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said that the euro-area proposals for Greek bonds appear to involve “a voluntary exchange that would not be binding on all holders,” according to an e-mailed statement.

“As such, it does not appear to be likely that the euro zone proposal will trigger payments under existing CDS contracts,” the statement said. “However, whether or not it does so will be decided by the Determinations Committee on the basis of specific facts, if a request is made to them.”

www.bloomberg.com . . .

This just states that some future payments might not be garanteed.

It was NOT the point of the bet.

DEFAULT at a given date = unability to meet contractual deadlines within the time frame given.

This has not happened: Greece was able to make all payments needed to stay operational within the bet timeframe.


Conclusions:

1- Greece has not defaulted (yet)

2- NOZZLE is trying to weasel out.



May I suggest to Shon to slap a litigation karma fine on NOZZLE for the time bet winners must spend arguing NOZZLE's frivolous contestation?

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Your words and the point of WilyB's offer.

jeanv wrote:

This has not happened: Greece was able to make all payments

Were they, prove that Greece paid when due its bonds that matured in October. If they did pay the principal and interest when due then why are the bondholders agreeing to a discount of 50%.

Notice there is no question mark at the end of the last sentence because obviously the bondholders did not receive what was called for in the bonds.

Nice try with the Rule 11 threat.

Dear NOZZLE,

• Wily initiated this betting thread on Sept 19
• FF bets are resolved 4 weeks after the posting date
• the bet had to be resolved by Monday Oct 17
• On Tuesday, Oct 18 the world at large still considered Greece had NOT defaulted.
  
  One proof among others anybody could find: this article by CNN Oct 18, clearly considering Greece had NOT defaulted:

It can also be proved by answering your following question:

NOZZLE wrote:

Were they, prove that Greece paid when due its bonds that matured in October.
If they did pay the principal and interest when due then why are the bondholders agreeing to a discount of 50%.

A default ONLY occurs when a debtor breaks loose from his contractual obligations (obviously, against the creditor's will)

There is NO default even if a payment hasn't be made in full IF the creditor has agreed to it.

By doing so, the creditor has agreed to a modification of the terms of the contract.



In the same way that you're trying to break away from your contractual betting obligations now:

NOZZLE wrote:

Nice try with the Rule 11 threat.

Earlier on, I was thinking of a simple 10% fine on your bet.

Given your insistence, I would now suggest to Shon fining you 20%

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Greece now has a referendum on ewhether or not to accept austerity measures. It is believed they won't. Then the vultures are in trouble, so I bet the referendum questions will be designed to be favourable to the private money masters

If Greeks vote "No" then all they need do is nationalize their banks

Its simple... either Papandreou changes (again) his mind on the referendum and set Greece on fire or he sticks to it and the EC is finished, not to mention all the banks! But that's the cherry on top of the cake!

ps: there is no such thing as "surprise" in the political and financial world...

Lord_Buckhouse wrote:

How about the French give Greece their Libyan oil contracts. You know, the ones they bombed Libya for.

The French bombed Libya?

really?

The US didn't?

www.salon.com . . .

By doing so, the creditor has agreed to a modification of the terms of the contract.

Where is the evidence of this modification?

Or, evidence of payment by the Greeks?